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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that a framework for a peace deal negotiated with US officials could be completed in a matter of days. Afterward, U.S. representatives will submit the documentation to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Remain

After two days of discussions in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that approximately “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the conflict remains uncertain, especially given Russia's absence from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Zelenskyy said that the US Congress was anticipated to consider security guarantees and that a finalised set of documents could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the United States would hold consultations with Russian representatives, potentially followed by summit-level talks possibly this coming weekend.

Defense Assurances and International Support

“We are counting on five key agreements. Several pertain to binding security pledges: formally ratified, that is, approved and approved by the United States Congress,” the president commented to the press. He clarified that these guarantees would “reflect the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.

On Monday, US officials did not provide specific details regarding the probable makeup of the security package or the consequences if Moscow sought to capture more land after a peace deal. They did, however, confirm that the U.S. does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine.

Leaders from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and several additional European nations said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “allied coalition” could “help with the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting safer seas, including through operating inside Ukraine.”

They stopped short, however, of suggesting these actions would constitute guarantees equivalent to NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Moscow is near agreeing to the type of package under discussion between Washington and Kyiv.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Russian government said it had not received the details of the plans for security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, declared that Russia would not agree to troops from Nato countries operating in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators remains the issue of land. A key demand involves Kyiv ceding the parts of the Donbas region it still holds, while the Ukrainian side wants to maintain the current front lines. “We are discussing the land dispute. As is known, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president said after the Berlin talks.

American mediators, led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a compromise solution. This framework would see Ukrainian forces pull back, but Russian troops would not advance, with the resulting zone becoming “a free economic zone.” Russia has suggested it could use police and national guard units instead of the army in such an area, suggesting it would still seek to maintain authority there.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ is not under the control of Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Absolutely,” stated President Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Potential Outcomes

It is not clear how the two sides will resolve the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has earlier mentioned that a compromise solution like a special economic area could be theoretically possible if the Ukrainian people voted for it in a referendum. The major impediment is likely to be when the plans are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is willing to compromise on his military objectives.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will end up with precisely the situation we are encountering on our plane right now – instability,” said the president, recording the comments after his plane took off from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and provide us with more weapons if they reject the deal. I think, that would be a fair request from Ukraine to the Americans,” he added.